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Forecasting Methods
Assignment
Your team continues working on the International Expansion project.
Refer to the International Expansion spreadsheet (xlxs), this time focusing on the revenue by location and licenses by region. Using this data, create a forecast for each of the next three years beyond the range of data provided in both of the two tabs. In this analysis, you will use multiple methods, compare the results, select the method you consider to be most accurate using forecasting metrics, and finally, report your analysis conclusions, and recommendations. Use the following forecasting methods in your analysis (refer to the readings and resources in this module to identify how to perform these tasks in Excel):
Naïve forecast
Plot with trendline and three-year moving average
Winter’s method—exponential smoothing (make your best estimates of smoothing constants for base only. This requires experimenting with the choice of α. The value of .7 is a reasonable starting option). Use the Exponential Smoothing function found in the data analysis add-in.
Create an Excel Forecast sheet-based forecast
Submission
Create a report in APA format on your analysis of items 1-4 of the list and include your recommendations. Along with your spreadsheet, include a two-to-three-page report summarizing the findings. Only your Word Document report will be graded. Therefore, it is important that you include the necessary charts, figures and tables in your report from your spreadsheet (screen clipping is ok).
Grading Rubric –
Calculations – All calculations were correct with only one or two minor errors. Correctly used software tools.
Analysis – Answers to assigned problems were clear and accurate. Connection with class and study material goes well beyond the obvious connections among ideas; demonstrates insight, original thinking, and comprehensive analysis of results.
Presentation of Data – Information was presented in a very professional manner that was easy to follow and understand the process used.
Report – The report has appropriate graphics/charts that enhance and align with the content. The narrative is clear professional and easy to understand.
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